Shift scenario description

In Shift we assess pathways to reach carbon neutrality in the Nordic region by 2050. We focus on the combination of transport mitigation measures that is needed in Denmark, Norway and Sweden but consider the integrated energy and transport system. The scenarios represent different cost-effective technology pathways to reach the goal of no net CO2 emissions in the Nordics by 2050 under different circumstances.

All national energy related CO2 emissions as well as fuel use for international shipping and aviation (filled in the included Nordic countries) are included. Decarbonization is achieved by applying a yearly CO2 emission bound which is gradually decreased until (close to) net zero emissions are reached by 2050. No other policy measures are included.

Two scenarios

Nordic_Tech scenario: This scenario has a technology focus and include a range of transport technology options and future development of them. However, no external shift and avoid measures are assumed possible for meeting the CO2 target.

Nordic_Shift&Avoid scenario: This scenario includes an alternative transport demand development considering external shift and avoid measures (i.e., shift to more energy-efficient modes and avoided travel demand), e.g., lower car traffic levels (see details below). It includes the same technology options and performance as Nordic_Tech.

Four possible switches

Key aspects (switches) for the development that can be varied in our scenarios include:

Biofuel import bound

To represent the limited global bioenergy potential, partly due to sustainability demands, an import bound of biofuels to the Nordic countries is introduced. With the biofuel import bound, the bioenergy use in the Nordics is restricted to the domestic biomass supply potentials. Without the import bound, biofuels can be imported from the rest of the world at an assumed market price.

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)

CCS technologies imply that CO2 can be captured from point sources, such as electricity generation and industrial processes, transported and stored permanently in storage sites, such as underground geological formations instead of being emitted. CCS could potentially be a future key technology for CO2 mitigation but so for the deployment is limited. To assess the role of CCS, this technology can either be assumed possible or assumed not possible to introduced in large-scale in the Nordics.

High EV and FCEV cost

The cost development of electric and fuel cell vehicles is a central factor for their deployment but relatively uncertain. To test the influence of the development of future vehicle cost reductions, a 20% higher investment costs for all electric vehicle options compared to the base assumption are assumed in this case. The higher cost applies to all electric vehicles, including battery-powered vehicles, plug-in hybrids and electric road vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles, both in light-duty and heavy-duty road transport.

Shared autonomous cars

Shared autonomous vehicles can in the future function as driver-less taxis and reduce the need for privately-owned vehicles. In the case with shared autonomous cars such technologies can supply up to 25% of the delivered car passenger km in 2050. These cars are contrasted to conventional cars trough essentially three parameters: higher vehicle investment costs, higher average driving distance per year (about 6-7 times higher than regular cars) and shorter technical lifetime (about 1/3 of a regular car).

Other scenario assumptions

Some of the base assumptions for the TIMES Nordic modeling in Shift builds upon the scenario work of the Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives (NETP) 2016, primarily the carbon neutral scenario (CNS) (IEA and NER, 2016). This include the energy service end-use demand projections (such as transport demand) and future price developments for fossil fuels.

Shift and avoid – reduced transport demand scenario

Estimated potentials for measures aiming at shifting from less energy efficient modes as private car traveling and truck transport to more energy-efficient modes (e.g, public transport, walking, biking, ship and train), or improving the modes (higher load, better route optimization, etc.) as well as avoiding travel needs are used for the alternative transport demand scenario. In this scenario, car traffic levels are in 2050 about 45% lower than in the baseline scenario. About ¾ of the reduced car travel is shifted to other modes (also including non-motorized modes) while ¼ of the reduction is due to avoided travel. For trucks, the reduction in vehicle km traveled is about 10% in 2050 compared to the baseline.

The estimated potentials for the shift and avoid measures are primarily based on climate scenarios of the Swedish road administration. Besides the exogenous alternative transport demand scenario, TIMES Nordic also include endogenous modal shifts. These occurs as a result of changes in marginal costs of travel from different conditions in contrasting scenarios.